No Split After El Mencho: 7 Months On, the CJNG Has Avoided a Violent Succession Fight, a State Department–Coordinated U.S. Report Says — With U.S. Citizen Juan Carlos Valencia González, ‘El R3,’ at the Top

By The Narco Blog · October 11, 2026 · Updated October 11, 2026

Seven months after Mexican troops killed Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes, “El Mencho,” in February, the Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG) has not split apart or fallen into a violent fight over who leads it. That is the finding of a U.S. analysis by the Overseas Security Advisory Council (OSAC), a State Department–coordinated group that advises American businesses abroad, Agencia Reforma reported from Washington on Oct. 10–11, 2026. The analysts warn that, because the cartel is still operating, violence in Mexico could stay at the levels seen before his death.

What the report says

“Seven months after El Mencho’s death, a large-scale fragmentation has not occurred,” the OSAC analysis says, as quoted by Reforma. “Although some analysts feared it after El Mencho’s death, there has been no significant violent struggle for the leadership of the CJNG.” The analysts suggest this may be due to a slow move away from the centralized authority El Mencho held. They add that “relatively stable continuity of command” has kept most of the CJNG’s regional operations intact.

The report also says the cartel “has not remained totally intact.” It says the group has carried out no large-scale attacks or territorial offensives since February, and may have suffered some structural weakening that limits its ability to beat rivals. It credits pressure from President Claudia Sheinbaum’s government, citing the April arrest of Audias Flores, “El Jardinero,” in Nayarit and the July arrest of Ramón Álvarez, “El R1,” in Jalisco.

The U.S. citizen at the top

Reforma reported that since June, the U.S. National Counterterrorism Center has identified Juan Carlos Valencia González, a U.S. citizen it called “El R3,” as the CJNG’s top leader. It said he faces new U.S. drug trafficking charges and a U.S. reward of up to $25 million. Other reports have given his aliases as “El 03,” “O3” and “El Pelón.” He has not been reported captured, and the charges against him are allegations.

Why it matters

“The CJNG is one of the largest cartels in Mexico and a key driver of violence across the country,” the analysts wrote. They added that the “smooth succession” inside the cartel has avoided, “for now,” a potential violent competition between factions. Reforma did not give the report’s title or publication date.

Related coverage: ‘El Tanque,’ Sanctioned by U.S. Treasury Over a CJNG Pipeline Fuel-Theft Empire Worth Tens of Millions a Year, Arrested in Zapopan — Mexico Ties Him to 2015 Army Helicopter Attack

Sources

• Agencia Reforma, via Periódico AM: “El CJNG evitó la fractura tras la muerte de ‘El Mencho’, revela informe de Estados Unidos” (Oct. 10–11, 2026); also published by Reforma as “Descartan en EU fractura de CJNG”
• Photos: U.S. Department of State reward poster, via Wikimedia Commons; San Francisco Police Department booking photos, via Wikimedia Commons

Reported Oct. 11, 2026, from Agencia Reforma’s account of the OSAC analysis; The Narco Blog has not reviewed the report itself. Quotes are translated from Reforma’s Spanish. The report’s conclusions are analysts’ assessments, and anyone charged is presumed innocent.