82,785 U.S. Guns Traced in Mexico, $126 Million Spent — and Agencies Can’t Say What Works: GAO Flags Phoenix and Tucson, Arizona, as Cartel Gun Sources
U.S. agencies have spent about $126 million since 2020 trying to stop American guns from reaching Mexican cartels, but they cannot say whether any of it is working. That is the finding of a Government Accountability Office (GAO) report released Sept. 28, 2026. The report says the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives (ATF) traced 82,785 guns recovered in Mexico from 2020 through 2024 to a U.S. source. That is 68 percent of the 122,084 guns it traced. It also names Arizona, especially the Phoenix and Tucson areas, as a key source state.
What the cartels want, and how they get it
According to agency officials quoted by GAO, criminal groups in Mexico seek AR-15s, AK-47s and .50-caliber rifles. They convert the AR-15s and AK-47s to fully automatic fire after smuggling them south. Some mount belt-fed guns on armored “monster trucks” and use them against Mexican helicopters, soldiers and police. The guns are bought mainly by straw purchasers, then driven through ports of entry, often broken into parts and hidden in furniture, refrigerators or hidden compartments. According to an ATF intelligence assessment GAO cites, law enforcement is more likely to encounter gun traffickers or straw buyers in Arizona than in any other state. From 2018 through 2025, 1,587 federally licensed gun dealers in Arizona were associated with 15,413 guns recovered in Mexico and traced by ATF.
Seizures, but no scorecard
U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) seized 4,944 Mexico-bound firearms at land ports from January 2020 through December 2025. GAO said CBP’s data system does not consistently record which types of rifles were seized. ATF, which put more than $105 million into its Operation Southbound in fiscal years 2020 through 2025, set performance measures for the operation in fiscal 2023. In August 2026, ATF told GAO it had paused them because of “organizational restructuring and leadership changes.” The report says the Department of Homeland Security has no goals or performance measures with baselines and targets for its efforts. It warns this “could lead to waste.” The report also highlights one task-force case in which investigators found a tunnel linking El Paso and Ciudad Juárez. That case produced 24 arrests and the seizure of 74 weapons and $357,000.
How the agencies responded
GAO made four recommendations. ATF and the State Department agreed with the ones aimed at them. DHS agreed to set goals, but it rejected the call for CBP to record the types of firearms seized. DHS said that would not provide enough operational benefit to justify the cost.
Sources
- U.S. Government Accountability Office, “Firearms Trafficking to Mexico: Better Data and Performance Monitoring Would Help Agencies Direct Resources to Counter Cartels” (GAO-26-108061), Sept. 28, 2026 (full report)
- Straight Arrow News (Dan Levin), Sept. 30, 2026
- Photos: U.S. Customs and Border Protection (public domain), via the GAO report
Reported Sept. 30, 2026, from the GAO report and Straight Arrow News. Figures are the agencies’ data as GAO reports them. The Narco Blog has not independently verified them. GAO did not say which cartels bought specific guns, and it did not give dates or locations for the pictured seizures.